16 Wins. 1 Loss. 94% Win Rate. The Range Keeps Paying. | SPX Income System | Weekly Debrief | 31 Jan 2026

What a week.

The S&P 500 touched 7,000 for the first time in history. Microsoft lost $440 billion in a single day. Apple posted record everything. Bitcoin broke its 100-week moving average. Gold rampaged past $5,500. The Fed held rates whilst everyone waited for Powell to say the magic word.

And through all of that chaos? We just traded the range.

Same range we’ve been trading since October. Same boundaries. Same setups. Same systematic approach that doesn’t care whether Microsoft’s crashing or Apple’s soaring – because we’re not predicting headlines, we’re trading price levels.

The result? 17 trades. 16 wins. 1 loss. 94.1% win rate.

Tuesday tried to shake us. First trade of the day stopped out. The emotional response says quit, protect your capital, walk away. But that’s not how systematic trading works. We took the next valid setup. Recovered most of the loss. Ended the day net positive with the swings.

That one loss? It’s not hidden in this review. It’s highlighted. Because the lesson isn’t “never lose” – the lesson is “don’t quit after you do.”

Wednesday brought Fed Day. The market held its breath for Powell. We collected three wins during FOMC because premium sellers don’t care about press conferences – we care about theta decay and elevated IV crushing post-announcement.

Thursday delivered the trade of the week. SPX Tag ‘n Turn combined with an overnight Bed ‘n Breakfast swing. $90 index move. 90% ROC. The V-shaped entry at range highs we’d been discussing all week played out exactly as the pattern suggested.

Friday? Five trades. Five wins. Strong finish to close out January.

Here’s the full breakdown of every trade, every lesson, and why the range keeps paying…

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Market DeBriefing:

Total Trades: 17 Wins: 16 Losses: 1 Win Rate: 94.1%

Strategy Breakdown:

• Premium Poppers (scalps): 14 trades (13 wins, 1 loss)

• Tag ‘n Turn Swings: 2 trades (2 wins)

• Bed ‘n Breakfast (overnight): 1 trade (1 win)

Instruments:

• SPX: 7 trades

• RUT: 10 trades

Average ROC (winners): 67.2% Best Trade: SPX TnT + BnB – 90% ROC ($90 index move) Only Loss: RUT Premium Popper – 95.5% loss (Tuesday)

The Week in Context

This was a week of contained chaos. The indexes continued their range-bound behavior that’s persisted since October, bouncing between upper and lower boundaries like a ping pong match that nobody’s winning.

Key Market Themes:

• S&P touched 7,000 for the first time (Wednesday), then immediately retreated

• Microsoft lost $440 billion in a single day (Thursday) – worst since March 2020

• Apple posted record $143.8B revenue (Thursday)

• Gold rampaged to $5,500+ before retreating

• Bitcoin broke its 100-week moving average, crashed to $83K

• Fed held rates (Wednesday) – premium sellers collected regardless

• RUT head and shoulders pattern played out beautifully

The divergence between indexes was extreme. SPX nudging all-time highs whilst RUT broke down. Tech celebrating whilst healthcare crashed. The “schizophrenic market” theme from Tuesday’s briefing proved prescient.

Daily Breakdown

MONDAY 26 JAN 2026

Market Context: Gold rampage to $5,000+. Indexes gapped lower then climbed. RUT held lows whilst others rallied. Last week’s bear moves rolling into Monday.

TUESDAY 27 JAN 2026

Market Context: Gap down, rally all night, rally all day – except Uncle Russell who held lows. Nasdaq threw “hissy fit” breakout attempt. Indexes completely divergent. “Schizophrenic markets” theme established.

WEDNESDAY 28 JAN 2026

Market Context: Fed Day. S&P record 6,978 whilst UnitedHealth crashed 19.6% ($60B wiped). Healthcare massacre. Tech celebrated. Two completely different markets, same day.

THURSDAY 29 JAN 2026

Market Context: S&P touched 7,000 intraday then closed flat (peak 2026 energy). Meta +10% on $135B “superintelligence” bet. Microsoft -7% on “only” 39% Azure growth. SAP -14% (AI existential crisis). Gold hit $5,500.

FRIDAY 30 JAN 2026

Market Context: Bear dreams came true then reversed overnight. Microsoft -10% ($440B gone). Apple record $143.8B. Bitcoin broke 100-week MA. Bull bear ping pong continues. Same range since October.

Key Lessons This Week

1. The Range Keeps Paying

Price has been moving between upper and lower range boundaries since October. The playbook remains simple:

• At upper boundary → assess for breakout or reversal

• No breakout → fade towards range lows

• At lower boundary → opposite logic

This week proved it again. SPX touched 7,000 (upper boundary), immediately reversed. RUT head and shoulders at range highs broke down exactly as the pattern suggested.

2. Process Over Emotion

Tuesday’s session was the textbook example. First trade: loss. Emotional response says quit. Process says take the next valid setup. Second trade recovered most of the loss. Day ended net positive with swings included.

“The system doesn’t have emotions. It doesn’t get discouraged by one loss. It just takes the next valid setup. Be like the system.”

3. Premium Sellers Don’t Care About Fed Days

Wednesday proved this definitively. Three trades during FOMC. Three wins. Trade 3 went sideways during Powell’s presser and still collected 58% ROC from time decay.

The decision (hold) was predictable. The language created some volatility. Premium sellers profit from elevated IV crushing post-announcement – direction doesn’t matter.

4. Divergence Creates Opportunity

The indexes weren’t just divergent this week – they were schizophrenic. SPX at all-time highs. RUT breaking down. Dow bleeding from healthcare. Nasdaq throwing tantrums.

This divergence created opportunities in both instruments. RUT’s bearish trend provided consistent short setups. SPX’s range resistance provided fade opportunities. Both paid.

5. The TnT + BnB Combination

Thursday’s $90 move / 90% ROC trade highlighted the power of combining strategies:

• TnT identified the bearish setup at range highs

• BnB overnight component captured the gap move

• V-shaped entry pattern (6 Money Making Patterns) provided the trigger

Swings capture the bigger moves. Poppers collect consistent daily income. Together they compound.

Looking Ahead

What Worked:

• Bear setups at range highs

• RUT H&S pattern recognition

• Fed Day premium selling

• Process discipline after losses

• TnT + BnB swing combinations

What to Watch:

• SPX remains at upper range boundary – continue favoring reversals until breakout confirmed

• RUT H&S target around 2,630 area – bear swings remain favored

• Month-end rebalancing may create additional volatility

• February could see continuation of range-bound behavior

System Status:

• Premium Popper: BREAKOUT (30-day stats strong)

• Tag ‘n Turn: Working beautifully in range environment

• Overall: The range keeps paying. Stay systematic.

Final Thought

This week delivered 16 wins from 17 trades. Not because we predicted the market. Not because we knew Microsoft would crash or Apple would surge. But because we:

1. Identified the range boundaries

2. Took setups at those boundaries

3. Followed the process regardless of news

4. Didn’t quit after the one loss

Same system. Same approach. Consistent results.

Pop Pop.

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Trade well,
T2 Markets

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