15 Points Between War and a Rally | SPX Market Briefing | 25 Mar 2026

Right. So the New York Times dropped a headline overnight that sent futures flying.

Washington delivered a 15-point peace plan to Tehran via Pakistan. Fifteen points. That is a lot of points for a peace plan.

Brent crude immediately dropped 4.7% to $99.55. S&P futures jumped 0.7%. The Dow put on 311 points before breakfast. Asia followed suit.

Then Tehran said no.

Iran denied any direct negotiations were taking place. Trump described talks as “very good and productive.” The market does not know who to believe. Neither do I.

Tuesday closed in the red – S&P -0.37%, Nasdaq -0.84% – with energy the only green sector in March, up 9% month-to-date, because everything else is still bleeding.

Monday’s wait-and-see turned into back to bearish on Tuesday for the swings. No harm, no foul. That is the system working exactly as intended.

Wednesday morning we are seeing the potential for a little pop higher – which could push us into the 6,600 GEX put level. And then ideally a push back down toward the 6,500 GEX level.

In an overall negative GEX environment again, we are likely to continue to see jumpy, jittery price movements. Do not mistake the pop for a direction.

As for the Poppers – back on top form yesterday. One slightly weird exit where a little price jump triggered the stop, but by the time the fill was reported it came back as a small gain. Deeply annoying. Entirely acceptable. The rest of the day was killer.

Market Briefing:

Wednesday 25 Mar.

• Tuesday: S&P -0.37% to 6,556 / Nasdaq -0.84% / energy sole green sector in March (+9% MTD) / everything else still bleeding

• Iran 15-point peace plan delivered via Pakistan leaked overnight:

  • Brent -4.7% to $99.55

  • S&P futures +0.7% / Dow +311 / Nasdaq +0.8%

  • Asia: Nikkei +2.87% / Kospi +1.59% / ASX +1.85%

• Then Tehran responded:

  • Iran denied any direct negotiations

  • Trump: talks are “very good and productive”

  • Market has two contradictory statements and no resolution

• Fed backdrop: held 3.50-3.75% / PCE revised to 2.7% / dot plot one cut all of 2026 (seven members projecting zero) / 10-year 4.42% / 2-year 3.94% post weak auction Tuesday / Kevin Warsh circling / markets now pricing a potential hike, not a cut

• Wednesday read: potential pop toward 6,600 GEX put wall then ideally fade toward 6,500 GEX level / negative GEX environment / MACD-v reporting absolutely no momentum / slight bear bias SPX / RUT grinding sideways in middle of prior range with no clear bias

• Tuesday AAR: Poppers back on top form / SPX 4 wins $15//$20//$27//$21 / RUT 3 wins $30//$30//$12

Market Snapshot

• ES: 6,653.25 / pre-market bid on Iran headlines / Tuesday close 6,556.36

• YM: 50,611 / Dow +311 pre-market

• NQ: 24,429.25 / -2,639.50 (-10.02%) from highs

• RTY: 2,548.10 / -332.30 (-12.09%) from highs / still grinding the range

• GC: 4,548.10 / holding elevated

• CL: 88.34 / Brent at $99.55 after -4.7% overnight

• VIX: 26.03 / elevated / headline-driven market

• BTC: 71,227.60 / steadied above $71k as oil fell / relief not conviction

Tag ‘n Turn

Both instruments remain bearish below their respective trigger levels. The overnight pop on the Iran headlines does not change the directional read.

Monday’s wait-and-see lasted exactly one session before Tuesday flipped both instruments bearish. No harm, no foul – that is the system doing what it is supposed to do when confidence is low. Wednesday morning brings a counter-move. The question is whether the overnight bid has legs into cash hours or evaporates the moment Tehran issues the next statement. MACD-v is offering no directional conviction on either chart. A pop that looks like a rally is likely to behave like noise in this environment.

SPX Analysis

Bearish. Pop toward 6,600 is the setup, not the all-clear. MACD-v flat with slight bear lean. Watch the reaction at 6,584.

Price closed Tuesday at 6,556. Pre-market futures are bidding toward the 6,600 area – and that is precisely where GEX concentrates significant negative dealer positioning at the put wall. A move into 6,580-6,600 runs straight into that level before any follow-through can develop. The 30-minute MACD-v has a slight bear lean. The price action remains bearish continuation until proven otherwise. A bounce into 6,600 is the opportunity. A rejection there opens the path toward 6,500.

Current Status: Bearish below 6,584 / PFZ 6,651 / Target 6,488

Gamma Exposure

Deeply negative. Dealers sell into rallies, buy into dips. Every move gets amplified. The jittery price action is not noise – it is the GEX environment.

Put wall at 6,500. Call wall at 6,800. Gamma flip point at 7,467 – well above current price. IV at 22.24% against historic vol of 12.58%. IV Percentile 93% – the market is paying up for protection at near-historic levels. In negative gamma, a pop toward 6,600 meets resistance from dealer hedging mechanics and TnT trigger levels simultaneously. That combination is the setup.

Current Status: Negative gamma / put wall 6,500 / call wall 6,800 / flip point 7,467 / IV Percentile 93%

RUT Analysis

Uncle Russell is going nowhere fast. Still grinding sideways through the middle of the prior range. MACD-v flat. No bias. No rush.

The chart has been in the middle of the prior range zone for days and has added nothing new to the conversation. MACD-v is completely flat – not even the faint bear lean SPX is showing. A bounce from the Iran headlines this morning could nudge price toward the upper end of the range zone, but the bearish TnT read keeps the odds against a clean break higher. The range is the message and Uncle Russell is in no hurry to resolve it.

Current Status: Bearish below 2,494 / PFZ 2,529 / Target 2,422

AAR – 24 Mar 2026

SPX: Back on top form and then some.

• Trade 1 off the 1st BO – clean as a whistle, nothing to see here.

• Trade 2 was the annoying one: a little price jump triggered the stop mid-trade, but by the time the fill came back it reported a small gain. Entirely acceptable in the ledger. What can you do.

• Trades 3 and 4 developed as VWAP setups and both delivered properly.

Good day’s work – 4 wins / 0 losses.

RUT:

• Trades 1 and 2 off the 1st BO – two positions, both sharp.

• Trade 3 was a clean VWAP retest setup that came in nicely.

All three in positive territory – 3 wins / 0 losses.

Rounding Off

Iran: Plan or Ploy? The 15-point plan delivered via Pakistan has the feel of a negotiating signal more than a resolution. Tehran’s denial and Washington’s confidence exist simultaneously – exactly the ambiguity that keeps oil vol elevated and traders second-guessing every session. A Texas refinery explosion on Tuesday spiked refined fuel futures further. $3.98/gallon regular. $5.35/gallon diesel. Goldman’s commodity desk still models Brent averaging $110 through March-April if Hormuz stays closed.

Diary Notes Durable goods today. Chewy, Paychex, and Cintas earnings – small beer against the Iran backdrop. NFP lands April 3. That is Good Friday. Markets closed. Build that into planning now.

The Fed Is Not Helping Rates held at 3.50-3.75%. PCE revised to 2.7%. Dot plot: one cut for all of 2026 with seven members projecting zero. Powell said plainly: not enough progress on inflation. Kevin Warsh circles. Markets now price a potential hike, not a cut. Moody’s downgraded FS KKR Capital to junk – non-accrual loans at 5.5%. The AI software ETF (IGV) is down 23% in 2026. Energy and defense are the only places March has shown any mercy.

Current Status: Iran denied / Brent $99.55 / GEX deeply negative / MACD-v flat / Fed on hold / NFP April 3 Good Friday

Expert Insights

The overnight Iran pop is the individual fluctuation. The tape says futures +0.7%, oil -4.7%, Asia green – and if you’re reading only the tape this morning, you’re watching a rally. But sizing up the entire picture – both instruments bearish below their TnT trigger levels, MACD-v reporting no momentum anywhere, GEX deeply negative with dealers selling into every bounce – the main movement is unchanged. The process doesn’t chase the fluctuation. It waits for the main movement to reassert itself at 6,584.

[Source: Jesse Livermore – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Edwin Lefèvre, 1923, public domain]

1 – In a deeply negative GEX environment, the rally itself becomes the risk, not the reward. Put wall at 6,500. Call wall at 6,800. Gamma flip point at 7,467. IV Percentile 93%. When price pops toward 6,600 in this environment, dealers are simultaneously selling that rally to hedge their short-gamma exposure. The result is resistance that is mechanical, not sentiment-driven. A rejection at 6,584-6,600 is not a surprise – it is the dealer flow doing exactly what the model predicts. The pop is the opportunity. The pop is not the direction. [Source: SpotGamma GEX data – $SPX Gamma Exposure 24 Mar 2026]

2 – Seven FOMC members projecting zero cuts in 2026 is not a data nudge – it is a regime signal. The move from one consensus cut to seven zero-cut projections happened in a single meeting cycle. With PCE revised to 2.7% and the dot plot offering one cut as the optimistic scenario, the traditional rate-cut-as-rescue assumption is in official dispute. Markets pricing a potential hike rather than a cut represents a significant shift in the operating assumption that has underpinned dip-buying since 2022. [Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, March 2026, federalreserve.gov]

3 – The Iran denial landing within the same session as the headline is the session in miniature. The peace plan moved Brent -4.7% and S&P futures +0.7% before Tehran responded. In a negative GEX environment with MACD-v flat and no momentum anywhere, headline-driven pops without follow-through are the pattern. They are also the setup. [Source: Phil’s raw notes and market data, 25 Mar 2026]

Beep.

Fun Fact:

The Strait of Hormuz is approximately 33 miles wide at its narrowest navigable point. On an average day, roughly 20 to 21 million barrels of oil pass through it – accounting for around 20% of global petroleum liquids supply and nearly a third of all liquefied natural gas traded by sea. It is the world’s most strategically consequential waterway, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.

[Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration – “The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint” – eia.gov]

Trade well,
T2 Markets

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